Future of AI

CS123, Intro to AI

Topics 
Overview of AINeural networks and deep learning
AI Problem Solving Revisited
Machine LearningPart 1
Applications of AI
Generative AI + Prompt engineering
Machine LearningPart 2Custom chatbot creation
History of AI + MidtermSocial and ethical issues of AI
Future of AI, Final

 

Table of Contents

The Singularity

Ray Kurzweil, a renowned futurist and director of engineering at Google, has made several predictions about what he calls "The Singularity". Here are some key points:

AI Industry and Thought Leaders Who Are AI Optimists

Moore's Law

Moore's Law is an empirical observation named after Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel⁴. Here are some key points about it:

Moore's Law has been used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and development, thus functioning to some extent as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Despite its end, the number of transisters in a CPU chip continues to increase. One of AMD's latest (as of mid-2024), the Ryzen 9000, has over 8 billion transistors.

Exponential Growth: Rice on a Chessboard

The story of rice grains on a chessboard is a famous illustration of exponential growth, often referred to as the "rice (or wheat) and chessboard problem". Here's how the story goes:

A wise ruler wanted to reward a servant for an act of extraordinary bravery. The servant requested the following: "Master, I ask you for just one thing. Take your chessboard and place on the first square one grain of rice. On the second day, place on the second square 2 grains for me to take home. On the third day, cover the third square with four grains for me to take. Each day double the number of grains you give me until you have placed rice on every square of the chessboard. Then my reward will be complete."

The ruler, thinking this was a small price to pay, agreed. However, the power of exponential growth soon became apparent. By the time the ruler reached the 64th square, he owed the servant over 18 quintillion (18 X 1018) grains of rice! That's approximately 350 billion tons of rice!

This story illustrates the concept of exponential growth, showing how small quantities can quickly become extraordinarily large when they're repeatedly doubled. It's particularly relevant to concepts like Moore's Law.

What is the Computing Power of the Brain?

Estimating the computing power of the human brain in terms of Tera Operations per Second (TOPs) or 1 x 1012 operations per second.

Estimation Range for Brain’s Computing Power

  1. Neural Activity Basis:

    • The brain has roughly 86 billion neurons, each with an average of 1,000 to 10,000 synaptic connections.

      • Neurons communicate through electrical and chemical signals, firing at rates ranging from 0.1 to 200 Hz.

      • Researchers estimate the brain performs about 1015 to 1017 operations per second (1 to 100 peta operations per second, or PetaOps).

  2. Energy Efficiency:

    • The human brain uses about 20 watts of power, making it incredibly energy-efficient compared to current computers.

    • Equivalent digital systems today require far more energy to approach even a fraction of the brain’s capability.

  3. Translation to TOPs:

    • To express this in terms of tera operations per second, the brain’s performance is estimated to be between 1,000 TOPs and 100,000 TOPs.

Challenges in Precise Estimation

Context with Modern AI Hardware

Conclusion

While the human brain’s estimated computing power is often cited as 1,000–100,000 TOPs, its qualitative capabilities, adaptability, and energy efficiency far surpass those of current artificial systems. These differences highlight the significant challenges in replicating human cognition through AI.

References

Ray Kurzweil's Most Exciting Predictions About the Future of HumanityFuturism. The Singularity Is NearWikipedia.

Transhumanist author predicts artificial super-intelligenceTechspot.

Wheat and chessboard problemWikipedia.

What is Moore's Law? - Our World in Data.

The Death of Moore’s Law: What it means and what might fill the gap. Moore's lawWikipedia, 2024.

AMD's Zen 5 chips pack in 8.315 billion transistors per compute die, a 28% increase in densityTom's Hardware, 2024.

 


Creative Commons License Intro to AI lecture notes by Brian Bird, written in , are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Note: GPT-4 and GPT-4o were used to draft parts of these notes.